Politics
Why President Trump should have a huge lead on the night of the election
The longer things drag out, the better it will be for Biden.
Penned by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse
Does that headline surprise you? In this article, I am not predicting the eventual outcome of the presidential election. Rather, I am going to discuss what is likely to happen based on which votes will be counted first. Normally, Americans gather around their televisions on the evening of the election to watch the votes come in and the mainstream media declares a winner by the end of the night. But it won’t be that way this time around. More than 52 million Americans have already voted by mail in this election, and that number will keep rising with each passing day. It is going to take extra time to count all of those mail-in ballots, and that is going to cause significant delays in getting final election results from many states.
According to a survey conducted by Pew Research, Trump supporters are more than twice as likely to vote in person on Election Day than Biden supporters are, and Biden supporters are more than twice as likely to vote by mail as Trump supporters are…
Trump supporters are more than twice as likely as Biden supporters to say they plan to vote in person on Election Day (50% vs. 20%). By contrast, 51% of Biden supporters say they plan to vote by mail or absentee (or have already voted this way). A quarter of Trump supporters (25%) say they plan to vote by mail or absentee.
This will be so important to keep in mind while you are watching coverage of the election on the evening of November 3rd, because the votes that get counted first will determine which candidate is initially leading in each state.
According to Ballotpedia, there are 13 states which allow mail-in ballots to be counted early…
- Arizona
- Colorado
- Delaware
- Florida
- Hawaii
- Maryland
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Jersey
- North Carolina
- Oregon
- Vermont
And there are another 6 states that “either do not specify when ballot counting can begin or leave the decision to the discretion of local officials”…
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Utah
In these 19 states, the mail-in ballots and the early in person ballots will be the first votes counted, and those votes will favor Biden.
Yes, it is quite likely that Biden could jump out to large leads in red states like Oklahoma and Utah, but in the end he will not win either of those states.
On the other hand, there are 31 states that do not allow early counting of mail-in ballots. In most of those states, the votes that are cast on Election Day will make up the bulk of the early results, and so the initial vote counts should favor President Trump in those cases.
This group of states includes the critical swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. As I have discussed previously, whoever wins Pennsylvania is probably going to win the election, and so we will want to pay special attention to what is going on there.
According to FiveThirtyEight, about two million mail-in ballots have already been returned in Pennsylvania, and officials will not even begin counting them until 7 AM on Election Day…
Take Pennsylvania, arguably the most important swing state this election as it’s currently the likeliest “tipping-point state” in our forecast, or the state that could determine the winner of the Electoral College. About 2 million mail-in ballots have already been returned so far, almost one-third of the total number of votes cast in the state four years ago. But because the state can’t begin processing mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, it could be awhile before we get full results in Pennsylvania. State officials have said that it could take until Friday to finish counting most ballots.
I am quite skeptical that Pennsylvania will be able to count all the votes by Friday, because it took them two and a half weeks to count all of the mail-in ballots for the Democratic primary earlier this year…
In that election, the more rural and Republican-leaning parts of the state reported a sizable majority of their results on election night, as their votes were disproportionately cast on Election Day. In the state’s more populous and Democratic-leaning areas, it took roughly two and a half weeks to report most of the vote, due to the huge influx of mail-in ballots. As a result, on election night, 3 a.m. Eastern, only 46 percent of the final Democratic presidential primary vote had been reported, compared to 71 percent of the GOP total, based on data from ABC News.
I am sure that Pennsylvania is committing a lot more resources to the general election than they did to the primaries, but there will also be far more ballots to count for the general election.
In any event, President Trump should jump out to huge leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and other states where the counting of mail-in ballots will take an extended period of time.
As I discussed in a previous article, there are several steps that must be taken for each mail-in ballot, and counting them is a very tedious process.
I think that it was very foolish for so many states to push mail-in voting so heavily for this election, and I believe that it is going to cause some massive problems.
And it is also very important to remember that the states will not even have all of the mail-in ballots in their possession on November 3rd. Ballots will continue to be accepted after Election Day in many states, and these various deadlines will continue to be the subject of legal battles for weeks to come.
In many instances, the U.S. Supreme Court will get involved. In fact, they just ruled that Pennsylvania can accept mail-in ballots for up to three days after the election and that North Carolina can accept mail-in ballots for up to nine days after the election.
In a very, very tight race, we could potentially see the outcome decided by ballots that are not even received by North Carolina officials until November 12th.
The longer things drag out, the better it will be for Biden.
But on the night of the election, President Trump should have a lead in the majority of the states.
Needless to say, that will likely cause a tremendous amount of turmoil on the left, and they will be desperately hoping that the counting of the mail-in ballots will eventually flip the election to Biden.
Politics
Biden Wants To Give Separated Illegal Immigrants $450,000 Per Person
The average amount sought through the courts is roughly $3.4 million per family, according to the report.
The Biden administration is mulling a plan to offer immigrant families separated during the Trump administration $450,000 per person in compensation, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter.
The payments – part of an inter-agency solution to several lawsuits filed on behalf of separated parents and children claiming lasting psychological trauma could amount to nearly $1 million per family, though ‘the final numbers could shift,’ according to the report.
According to sources, most of the families crossing into the US from Mexico included one parent and one child. Depending on circumstances, many families could get smaller payouts.
The American Civil Liberties Union, which represents families in one of the lawsuits, has identified about 5,500 children separated at the border over the course of the Trump administration, citing figures provided to it by the government. The number of families eligible under the potential settlement is expected to be smaller, the people said, as government officials aren’t sure how many will come forward. Around 940 claims have so far been filed by the families, the people said. -WSJ
In total, the potential payout could reach $1 billion or more.
Throughout the Trump administration, thousands of children were separated from their parents (and coyotes paid to bring them into the country) after they had crossed illegally into the country from Mexico. The lawsuits allege some of the children suffered various ailments – including malnutrition, heat exhaustion, and were kept in freezing cold rooms with little medical attention. Some claim lasting mental health problems due to the trauma of being without their parents for several months.
The average amount sought through the courts is roughly $3.4 million per family, according to the report.
“President Biden has agreed that the family separation policy is a historic moral stain on our nation that must be fully remedied,” said ACLU deputy director, Lee Gelernt. “That remedy must include not only meaningful monetary compensation, but a pathway to remain in the country.”
Senate Republicans slammed the plan on Thursday afternoon following the WSJ‘s report.
“The Biden administration’s promises of citizenship and entitlement programs have already caused the worst border crisis in history—a huge cash reward will make it even worse,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR).
The discussions about the payouts have taken place over the past few months among a group of dozens of private lawyers representing the families and government lawyers. Some government lawyers have viewed the payouts as excessive for people who had violated the law by crossing the border, the people said. One government lawyer threatened to remove his name from the case out of disagreement with the potential settlement offer, the people said. -WSJ
“It is a complicated, complex piece of litigation” – trying to resolve hundreds of separate lawsuits at the same time, and “sometimes even more complex to try the cases” said Margo Schlanger, who ran the civil-rights office during the Obama administration at the Department of Homeland Security and now teaches at the University of Michigan law school.
What will the reparations crowd think of this?
Politics
White House To America: ‘We’re Coming Door To Door…With Shots!’
Will CDC soon recommend a nation-wide re-count of Covid deaths?
White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said at the daily press conference yesterday that President Biden’s strategy to get everyone a Covid shot – whether they want it or not – is to start going “door-to-door” to those not yet jabbed. So…they have a list? Also today: bomb-maker Raytheon goes “woke.” Capitol Hill Cops set up shop in California. Will CDC soon recommend a nation-wide re-count of Covid deaths?
Politics
Half A Million Illegals Crossed Since Harris Named Border ‘Czar’
By the time June’s figures are reported in the coming days, the combined number is expected to be over half a million, more than the entire population of Miami, Florida or Cleveland, Ohio.
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection figures, around 500,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the southern border since Kamala Harris was named border ‘czar’.
The Washington Free Beacon reported the findings, noting that only three months has passed since Harris took on the responsibility, and that the half a million figure is just those that have been apprehended.
The CBP says around 180,000 immigrants are being caught per month. In April agents arrested 178,854 illegal immigrants, the highest monthly figure for 21 years. That figure was then surpassed in May as agents apprehended 180,034 illegals.
By the time June’s figures are reported in the coming days, the combined number is expected to be over half a million, more than the entire population of Miami, Florida or Cleveland, Ohio.
Harris only bothered to visit the border when President Trump announced he was making a trip. Even then Harris visited El Paso, some 1000 miles away from where the crisis is taking place.
Previous to this, Harris lied and claimed she had been to the border, telling NBC’s Lester Holt “This whole thing about the border. We’ve been to the border. We’ve been to the border.”
When Holt pushed back and said she had not, Harris snapped “I—and I haven’t been to Europe. And I mean, I don’t—I don’t understand the point that you’re making,” then again laughed maniacally:
On Tuesday, Republican Senator Ron Johnson argued that Harris’ trip to El Paso was designed to distract the media and keep them away from the real crisis hit areas of the border.
“They took her to a point in the border where she wouldn’t see the crisis and so the press wouldn’t report on the crisis,” Johnson said.
The Senator added, “You just simply can’t understand what this administration is doing. We literally are apprehending now about 6,000 people per day. That’s I mean, that’s a large caravan every day being processed, some of them being returned, others are being dispersed. But this crisis is not going away. It’s just under everybody’s radar because the press isn’t covering it.”
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