Politics
Michael Snyder: If Trump wins, it will be the greatest political miracle in U.S. history
It may not look like the miracle that Trump supporters were expecting, but it would be a miracle nonetheless.
Penned by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse
Four years ago, I went on national television just prior to the election and declared that if Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton it would be the greatest political miracle in the history of the United States, and that is precisely what we got. Trump miraculously won the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by a combined total of less than 100,000 votes, and he won the presidency even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by a margin of nearly 3 million. Well, now here we are again. Joe Biden’s lead in the national polls is even greater than the lead that Hillary Clinton had in 2016, and if Trump ends up winning it will be an even greater political miracle than we witnessed four years ago.
Could it happen?
Yes, there is a very real possibility that Trump could win, and I explained exactly how it could unfold in an article that I posted yesterday.
But it won’t be easy.
Let’s take a look at how Trump is faring in the most critical swing states compared to where he stood just before the last election.
-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Florida polls had Trump up by 0.2 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Florida polls has him trailing Biden by 1.8 points.
-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of North Carolina polls had Trump up by 1.0 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of North Carolina polls has him up by just 0.2 points.
-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Arizona polls had Trump up by 4.0 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Arizona polls has him trailing Biden by 0.9 points.
-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Wisconsin polls had Trump down by 6.5 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Wisconsin polls has him trailing Biden by 6.7 points.
-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Michigan polls had Trump down by 3.4 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Michigan polls has him trailing Biden by 5.1 points.
-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Pennsylvania polls had Trump losing by 1.9 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Pennsylvania polls has him trailing Biden by 2.6 points.
So Trump is theoretically doing worse in each of those key swing states that he was in 2016.
Like I said, it is going to take a bigger miracle than we witnessed four years ago for Trump to pull this off, but it could definitely happen.
On election night itself, the most important state to focus on will be Florida. As I discussed in a previous article, Florida is one of the states that allows mail-in ballots to be counted in advance, and we should have a really good idea of what the results are going to look like in the state by the end of the night.
If Biden is declared the winner in Florida on election night, that is going to be a really, really bad sign for Trump. There really isn’t a path to 270 electoral votes for Trump without Florida.
If Trump wins Florida, or if the vote is too close to call, then Pennsylvania becomes crucially important.
Unfortunately, Pennsylvania is one of the states that does not allow mail-in ballots to be counted in advance, and they are going to have millions of them to count.
At this point, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf is openly admitting that “it may take longer than usual to count every vote”…
‘These are unprecedented times. Because of the coronavirus, there were millions of votes cast by mail so it may take longer than usual to count every vote,’ he says in a new ad for the nonpartisan group, The Voter Project.
‘The folks in our election offices – your neighbors, family and friends are working hard ensuring every single vote is counted,’ he says.
Pennsylvania is supposed to have every vote counted by Friday, but I am deeply skeptical that will actually happen.
In fact, it is now being reported that there are seven Pennsylvania counties that will not even begin counting mail-in ballots until Wednesday…
Seven out of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties will wait to count mail-in ballots until the day after the election, according to local officials, potentially delaying when media organizations will be able to project a winner in the state.
Pennsylvania allows for counties to begin processing mail-in ballots the morning of Election Day, but officials in Beaver, Cumberland, Franklin, Greene, Juniata, Mercer and Montour — all counties which voted for Donald Trump in 2016 — said that concerns over staffing and resources led them to delay when they will count mail ballots.
Adding to the mess is the fact that any mail-in ballot without a “secrecy envelope” in Pennsylvania must automatically be rejected. This is something that I discussed yesterday, and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver is acknowledging that this could become a big issue…
“Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on.”
If Biden loses Florida and then he loses the count in Pennsylvania, at that point it becomes more likely than not that Trump will emerge victorious.
All along, the Biden campaign has been anticipating that Trump will have a lead on election night but that the mail-in ballots will eventually swing the contest their way. But what they didn’t anticipate was that the flood of ballots coming through the mail would absolutely overwhelm the U.S. Postal Service…
For the third day in a row, the US Postal Service moved fewer ballots on-time in critical battleground states than it did in the previous day, according to new court filings Sunday.
With Election Day only two days away, these continued drops in performance mean ballots are now at significant risk of not arriving to election offices in time to get counted. In a majority of states, mail ballots postmarked before or on Election Day don’t count if they arrive after the polls close.
The deadlines are different in every state, but in each case any ballots that do not get delivered by the deadline will not be counted.
Americans are famous for putting things off, and it appears that millions upon millions of people are trying to get their ballots in at the last minute.
Yesterday I warned that there could potentially be millions of late ballots that do not get counted, and I continue to stand by that assessment.
And since Biden voters are more than twice as likely to vote by mail as Trump voters are, the vast majority of the late ballots that do not get counted will be from Biden supporters.
In the end, that could be enough to deliver a victory for President Trump.
It may not look like the miracle that Trump supporters were expecting, but it would be a miracle nonetheless.
As I have stated in so many other articles, I am not predicting the outcome of the election one way or the other.
But what I am saying is that it is going to take the biggest political miracle in U.S. history for Trump to win, and the U.S. Postal Service may end up being the delivery vehicle for that miracle.
Politics
Biden Wants To Give Separated Illegal Immigrants $450,000 Per Person
The average amount sought through the courts is roughly $3.4 million per family, according to the report.
The Biden administration is mulling a plan to offer immigrant families separated during the Trump administration $450,000 per person in compensation, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter.
The payments – part of an inter-agency solution to several lawsuits filed on behalf of separated parents and children claiming lasting psychological trauma could amount to nearly $1 million per family, though ‘the final numbers could shift,’ according to the report.
According to sources, most of the families crossing into the US from Mexico included one parent and one child. Depending on circumstances, many families could get smaller payouts.
The American Civil Liberties Union, which represents families in one of the lawsuits, has identified about 5,500 children separated at the border over the course of the Trump administration, citing figures provided to it by the government. The number of families eligible under the potential settlement is expected to be smaller, the people said, as government officials aren’t sure how many will come forward. Around 940 claims have so far been filed by the families, the people said. -WSJ
In total, the potential payout could reach $1 billion or more.
Throughout the Trump administration, thousands of children were separated from their parents (and coyotes paid to bring them into the country) after they had crossed illegally into the country from Mexico. The lawsuits allege some of the children suffered various ailments – including malnutrition, heat exhaustion, and were kept in freezing cold rooms with little medical attention. Some claim lasting mental health problems due to the trauma of being without their parents for several months.
The average amount sought through the courts is roughly $3.4 million per family, according to the report.
“President Biden has agreed that the family separation policy is a historic moral stain on our nation that must be fully remedied,” said ACLU deputy director, Lee Gelernt. “That remedy must include not only meaningful monetary compensation, but a pathway to remain in the country.”
Senate Republicans slammed the plan on Thursday afternoon following the WSJ‘s report.
“The Biden administration’s promises of citizenship and entitlement programs have already caused the worst border crisis in history—a huge cash reward will make it even worse,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR).
The discussions about the payouts have taken place over the past few months among a group of dozens of private lawyers representing the families and government lawyers. Some government lawyers have viewed the payouts as excessive for people who had violated the law by crossing the border, the people said. One government lawyer threatened to remove his name from the case out of disagreement with the potential settlement offer, the people said. -WSJ
“It is a complicated, complex piece of litigation” – trying to resolve hundreds of separate lawsuits at the same time, and “sometimes even more complex to try the cases” said Margo Schlanger, who ran the civil-rights office during the Obama administration at the Department of Homeland Security and now teaches at the University of Michigan law school.
What will the reparations crowd think of this?
Politics
White House To America: ‘We’re Coming Door To Door…With Shots!’
Will CDC soon recommend a nation-wide re-count of Covid deaths?
White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said at the daily press conference yesterday that President Biden’s strategy to get everyone a Covid shot – whether they want it or not – is to start going “door-to-door” to those not yet jabbed. So…they have a list? Also today: bomb-maker Raytheon goes “woke.” Capitol Hill Cops set up shop in California. Will CDC soon recommend a nation-wide re-count of Covid deaths?
Politics
Half A Million Illegals Crossed Since Harris Named Border ‘Czar’
By the time June’s figures are reported in the coming days, the combined number is expected to be over half a million, more than the entire population of Miami, Florida or Cleveland, Ohio.
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection figures, around 500,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the southern border since Kamala Harris was named border ‘czar’.
The Washington Free Beacon reported the findings, noting that only three months has passed since Harris took on the responsibility, and that the half a million figure is just those that have been apprehended.
The CBP says around 180,000 immigrants are being caught per month. In April agents arrested 178,854 illegal immigrants, the highest monthly figure for 21 years. That figure was then surpassed in May as agents apprehended 180,034 illegals.
By the time June’s figures are reported in the coming days, the combined number is expected to be over half a million, more than the entire population of Miami, Florida or Cleveland, Ohio.
Harris only bothered to visit the border when President Trump announced he was making a trip. Even then Harris visited El Paso, some 1000 miles away from where the crisis is taking place.
Previous to this, Harris lied and claimed she had been to the border, telling NBC’s Lester Holt “This whole thing about the border. We’ve been to the border. We’ve been to the border.”
When Holt pushed back and said she had not, Harris snapped “I—and I haven’t been to Europe. And I mean, I don’t—I don’t understand the point that you’re making,” then again laughed maniacally:
On Tuesday, Republican Senator Ron Johnson argued that Harris’ trip to El Paso was designed to distract the media and keep them away from the real crisis hit areas of the border.
“They took her to a point in the border where she wouldn’t see the crisis and so the press wouldn’t report on the crisis,” Johnson said.
The Senator added, “You just simply can’t understand what this administration is doing. We literally are apprehending now about 6,000 people per day. That’s I mean, that’s a large caravan every day being processed, some of them being returned, others are being dispersed. But this crisis is not going away. It’s just under everybody’s radar because the press isn’t covering it.”
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