Politics
If the polls are EXACTLY as flawed as they were in 2016, this election will come right down to the wire
In 2016, hordes of “shy Trump voters” showed up at the polls, and Trump is counting on that to happen again here in 2020.
Penned by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse
Do you think that you know who will win the election? Well, forecasting who will win elections is what the folks over at Fivethirtyeight do for a living, and in 2016 they told us on Election Day that Hillary Clinton had a 67 percent chance of winning. Needless to say, they were widely mocked when Trump was victorious, but that didn’t stop them. Today, Fivethirtyeight is projecting that Joe Biden has an 87 percent chance of winning this election, and that is a number that has stayed fairly stable in recent weeks. But of course their projections are primarily based on the same state polls that were deeply flawed in 2016, and so there is a very real possibility that they will be embarrassed once again in 2020.
The mainstream media likes to focus on the big national polls that show Joe Biden with a large lead, but the truth is that this election is going to be won or lost in just six absolutely critical swing states. Whichever candidate can win at least four of those six swing states is almost certain to win the election, and in this article I am going to focus on polling numbers in only those six states.
Florida
In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Florida polls had Trump up by just 0.2 points, but he ended up winning the state by 1.2 points.
So Trump overperformed the polls by 1 point.
Right now, Joe Biden is leading by 1.8 points in the latest RCP average of Florida polls, but if you subtract one point from his lead that would make this a very, very tight race.
North Carolina
In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of North Carolina polls had Trump up by 1.0 points, but he ended up winning the state by 3.7 points.
So Trump overperformed the polls by 2.7 points in that case.
Today, the latest RCP average of polls shows Biden up by 1.2 points, but a swing of 2.7 points would put Trump in the lead.
Arizona
In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Arizona polls had Trump up by 4.0 points, but he ended up winning the state by just 3.5 points.
So this is one of the rare cases where Trump actually underperformed the polls.
At this moment, the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 2.4 points, and that would seem to indicate that Trump may be in danger of losing those electoral votes.
Arizona is a special case because so many people from California are constantly migrating to the state, and that is fundamentally changing the demographics of the region. Arizona has been drifting left for years, and that process has accelerated here in 2020.
Wisconsin
In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Wisconsin polls had Trump down by 6.5 points, but he ended up winning the state by 0.7 points.
So Trump overperformed the polls by a whopping 7.2 points in that case.
Right now, Joe Biden is leading by 5.5 points in the latest RCP average of Wisconsin polls, but a 7.2 percent shift would put this state in Trump’s column.
Michigan
In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Michigan polls had Trump losing by 3.4 points, but he ended up winning the state by 0.3 points.
So that was an instance where Trump outperformed the polls by 3.7 points.
Today, the latest RCP average of polls shows Biden up by 9.0 points in Michigan, and so even after taking 3.7 points away Biden would still seem to have a lead.
Pennsylvania
In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Pennsylvania polls had Trump losing by 1.9 points, but he ended up winning the state by 0.7 points.
So in that absolutely pivotal state Trump overperformed the polls by 2.6 points.
The latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 4.8 points in Pennsylvania, but taking 2.6 points from that difference would make it a very close race.
Of course it is always possible that either Trump or Biden could win states that they are not currently expected to win. For example, it would not be a total shock if Biden won Iowa or Georgia, but those states are not likely to be in his column unless there is some sort of a landslide.
Likewise, Trump could pull a shocker in Minnesota or Nevada, but in either of those cases Biden would really have to underperform compared to the most recent polling numbers.
In the end, I believe that Florida and Pennsylvania are the two most critical states. If one of the candidates is able to win both of those, it is going to be exceedingly difficult for the other guy to win.
For both campaigns, turning out people that the experts don’t expect to vote in high numbers will be so important.
In 2016, hordes of “shy Trump voters” showed up at the polls, and Trump is counting on that to happen again here in 2020.
For the Biden campaign, high turnout among young and minority voters is critical, but Democratic candidates have been disappointed by young voters many times before.
As I write this article, the numbers show that more than 64 million Americans have already voted, and it is being projected that we will see the highest level of voter participation in a presidential election since 1908.
So many Americans are fired up to vote in this election, and as I discussed yesterday, most of them believe that their candidate will end up winning.
Because so many people are voting by mail, it will take some time to get the final results, but once a winner is finally declared there will be tens of millions of Americans that will be emotionally devastated.
For many Democrats, another four years of Trump is about the worst thing that they could possibly imagine. If Trump wins again, some have indicated that they will leave the country for good, but many more will use it as an opportunity to cause tremendous chaos in the streets.
For many Republicans, Trump is a hero figure that transcends politics. Watching him lose would be like having their favorite teams lose the Super Bowl, the World Series, the World Cup and the NBA Finals simultaneously. Trump is deeply, deeply loved by millions of conservatives, and a loss would be more than many of them would be able to handle.
The ironic thing is that most Americans don’t really care too much about Biden one way or the other. In the end, this election is all about Donald Trump, and very soon we will know whether the number of Americans that love Trump is greater than the number that hate him.
Politics
Biden Wants To Give Separated Illegal Immigrants $450,000 Per Person
The average amount sought through the courts is roughly $3.4 million per family, according to the report.
The Biden administration is mulling a plan to offer immigrant families separated during the Trump administration $450,000 per person in compensation, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter.
The payments – part of an inter-agency solution to several lawsuits filed on behalf of separated parents and children claiming lasting psychological trauma could amount to nearly $1 million per family, though ‘the final numbers could shift,’ according to the report.
According to sources, most of the families crossing into the US from Mexico included one parent and one child. Depending on circumstances, many families could get smaller payouts.
The American Civil Liberties Union, which represents families in one of the lawsuits, has identified about 5,500 children separated at the border over the course of the Trump administration, citing figures provided to it by the government. The number of families eligible under the potential settlement is expected to be smaller, the people said, as government officials aren’t sure how many will come forward. Around 940 claims have so far been filed by the families, the people said. -WSJ
In total, the potential payout could reach $1 billion or more.
Throughout the Trump administration, thousands of children were separated from their parents (and coyotes paid to bring them into the country) after they had crossed illegally into the country from Mexico. The lawsuits allege some of the children suffered various ailments – including malnutrition, heat exhaustion, and were kept in freezing cold rooms with little medical attention. Some claim lasting mental health problems due to the trauma of being without their parents for several months.
The average amount sought through the courts is roughly $3.4 million per family, according to the report.
“President Biden has agreed that the family separation policy is a historic moral stain on our nation that must be fully remedied,” said ACLU deputy director, Lee Gelernt. “That remedy must include not only meaningful monetary compensation, but a pathway to remain in the country.”
Senate Republicans slammed the plan on Thursday afternoon following the WSJ‘s report.
“The Biden administration’s promises of citizenship and entitlement programs have already caused the worst border crisis in history—a huge cash reward will make it even worse,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR).
The discussions about the payouts have taken place over the past few months among a group of dozens of private lawyers representing the families and government lawyers. Some government lawyers have viewed the payouts as excessive for people who had violated the law by crossing the border, the people said. One government lawyer threatened to remove his name from the case out of disagreement with the potential settlement offer, the people said. -WSJ
“It is a complicated, complex piece of litigation” – trying to resolve hundreds of separate lawsuits at the same time, and “sometimes even more complex to try the cases” said Margo Schlanger, who ran the civil-rights office during the Obama administration at the Department of Homeland Security and now teaches at the University of Michigan law school.
What will the reparations crowd think of this?
Politics
White House To America: ‘We’re Coming Door To Door…With Shots!’
Will CDC soon recommend a nation-wide re-count of Covid deaths?
White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said at the daily press conference yesterday that President Biden’s strategy to get everyone a Covid shot – whether they want it or not – is to start going “door-to-door” to those not yet jabbed. So…they have a list? Also today: bomb-maker Raytheon goes “woke.” Capitol Hill Cops set up shop in California. Will CDC soon recommend a nation-wide re-count of Covid deaths?
Politics
Half A Million Illegals Crossed Since Harris Named Border ‘Czar’
By the time June’s figures are reported in the coming days, the combined number is expected to be over half a million, more than the entire population of Miami, Florida or Cleveland, Ohio.
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection figures, around 500,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the southern border since Kamala Harris was named border ‘czar’.
The Washington Free Beacon reported the findings, noting that only three months has passed since Harris took on the responsibility, and that the half a million figure is just those that have been apprehended.
The CBP says around 180,000 immigrants are being caught per month. In April agents arrested 178,854 illegal immigrants, the highest monthly figure for 21 years. That figure was then surpassed in May as agents apprehended 180,034 illegals.
By the time June’s figures are reported in the coming days, the combined number is expected to be over half a million, more than the entire population of Miami, Florida or Cleveland, Ohio.
Harris only bothered to visit the border when President Trump announced he was making a trip. Even then Harris visited El Paso, some 1000 miles away from where the crisis is taking place.
Previous to this, Harris lied and claimed she had been to the border, telling NBC’s Lester Holt “This whole thing about the border. We’ve been to the border. We’ve been to the border.”
When Holt pushed back and said she had not, Harris snapped “I—and I haven’t been to Europe. And I mean, I don’t—I don’t understand the point that you’re making,” then again laughed maniacally:
On Tuesday, Republican Senator Ron Johnson argued that Harris’ trip to El Paso was designed to distract the media and keep them away from the real crisis hit areas of the border.
“They took her to a point in the border where she wouldn’t see the crisis and so the press wouldn’t report on the crisis,” Johnson said.
The Senator added, “You just simply can’t understand what this administration is doing. We literally are apprehending now about 6,000 people per day. That’s I mean, that’s a large caravan every day being processed, some of them being returned, others are being dispersed. But this crisis is not going away. It’s just under everybody’s radar because the press isn’t covering it.”
Join the community.
McMaken: The Fed’s Inflation Is Behind the Supply-Chain Mess
‘White People, You Are The Problem’: AT&T’s Internal ‘Racial Reeducation Program’ Leaked
Matrix? Misdirection? Cringe? Zuckerberg’s presentation of future life in ‘metaverse’ sparks fear, loathing, marvel and mockery
New York facing streets without cops because of COVID vaccine mandate
The Establishment Is Hiding Mass Resistance To Vaccine Mandates With The “Striketober” Farce
